The US put a 104% tariff on China. I saw a senior share this piece. Reposting it on the blog to study it properly — for my own learning only.
Original: 如何看待關稅和股市大跌？股神巴菲特這樣說
[Finance / compiled report] US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs shook global markets. As one of the most famous investors in history, "the Oracle of Omaha" Warren Buffett's views have always drawn attention. Foreign media compiled Buffett's past remarks and found that for years he has spoken on both tariffs and stock-market declines. The report argues that if you understand how Buffett looks at these things, it may help investors grasp the current turbulent market.
CNBC reported that Buffett's most recent public comments on tariffs came in early March, in an interview with CBS anchor Norah O'Donnell. Buffett said tariffs usually push prices up, and: "Over time, they are the greatest tax in consumption." He even joked: "The tooth fairy doesn't pay 'em!"
The report says Buffett may already have seen what comes next. First, inflation. When asked in 2018 about Trump's first, milder round of tariffs, Buffett said tariffs including those on aluminum and steel had already pushed up costs at some of his subsidiaries. Inflation signs were already showing in the US before Trump started taxing foreign goods, but Buffett said the tariff situation would make the inflation problem worse.
Another risk Buffett worries about is a "trade war" — the US and its trading partners raising tariffs on each other in retaliation, which could drag down global growth. In that March interview, Buffett even said that in a sense tariffs are an act of war.
In 2019, as US–China trade tensions rose, Buffett was even more blunt. In a CNBC interview he said: "If we actually have a trade war, it's bad for the whole world, because the whole world's economy is interconnected."
After Trump announced the latest round of tariffs, the S&P 500 had already fallen, though it had not officially entered a "bear market" (a drop of 20% or more from a recent high). Analysts noted that if it did enter a bear market, it would likely be because investors fear a trade war could trigger a global recession.
This is not Buffett's first global recession. In 2008, when the financial crisis brought a bear market, Buffett wrote an op-ed in the New York Times: "The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been spilling over into the general economy, and the spillover has now become a tidal wave," and "In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary."
Buffett then said: "So ... I am buying American stocks."
Buffett admits he cannot predict where the market goes next. In fact, after he published that piece in October 2008, the S&P 500 fell for another five months before bottoming.
But as Buffett has always stressed, businesses as a whole keep innovating and lifting earnings power over the long run, which in turn drives the stock market higher over time. In 2008, Buffett noted that many investors were unwilling to put their capital at risk.
Buffett thinks worrying about the long-term prosperity of these solid businesses is pointless. He wrote: "These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now."
Buffett prefers to buy when stock prices are relatively cheap, so long-term returns are higher. In 2008 he wrote: "In short, bad news is an investor's best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price."